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June 14, 2005

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Trey

One case that some conservatives will make _for_ gay marriage is that it will promote stable relationships among gay men and women, that it will change the 'gay' culture.

There is already some indication of that in Europe where the rates of syphilis have dropped in those nations that have gay marriage and/or unions.

I'll be the first to state that it isn't 'proof', coorelation rarely proves causation, but the researchers work is _magnitudes_ better and more sustainable than Katz's 'Scandinavian evidence'

and its interesting, perhaps same-sex marriage does promote stable, faithful relationships in same-sex couples as conservatives like to believe it does for opposite-sex couples.

Chairm

Trey, could you please quantify what you meant by the following?

>> "the researchers work is _magnitudes_ better and more sustainable than Katz's 'Scandinavian evidence'"

On Lawn


Trey,

It is more reasonable to say that your evidence supports forming RB's than marriage.

Aside from that, Kurtz's evidence has withstood every assailing I've seen waged against it. No doubt the evidence pointed at by 365gay.com would too however. But Kurtz's evidence looks at the health of "marriage" as an institution while your evidence looks only at the physical health of homosexual couples. So as they are looking at different effects it is likely they do not conflict. The need for a public avowing of fidelity for homosexual couples can be provided while leaving marriage with its added responsibility to future generations as a relationship to require both sexes.

Trey

Chairm,

I disagree with On Lawn and others, from my perspective (not as a gay man, the other perspective :), I think Kurtz's 'evidence' has been soundly refuted. Galois, Sullivan and some good statisticians have written a lot.

I probably would retract my 'magnitudes'.. because of course that implies quantification, and I meant more 'commonly'.

Kurtz's work looks too broadly and at correlations and connections that are extremely tenuous at best to be of any use scientifically, whereas this work looks at a very discrete data set that has been shown in many studies to have a definite link to stable relationships. (and anyway, looks at the same coorelations in Canada and the US, the opposite is shown... though that TOO is poor evidence in my view)

Perhaps we do speak of two different things, and that is where we part. You claim to be concerned about SSM's effect on OSM, an effect I so far have seen no scientific evidence for nor find to be intuitively or anecdotally true. I am concerned about the effect of SSM on SS couples and families.. and by extension society as a whole. Effects which I believe evidence is starting to show are good (for both SSM and society) and which I see both anecdotely in my own life and community and intuitively (especially when considering SSM opponent's arguments for marriage in general).

Again, I'm not going to argue this is a definitive study, or that it even _proves_ my point, only that it is the beginning of such evidence.

Trey

(and anyway, if you look at the same coorelations in Canada and the US, the opposite is shown... though that TOO is poor evidence in my view)

Speaking of Kurtz's work there, just to make that clear :) (corrected too.. I need a preview in comments :).

On Lawn

Galois, Sullivan and some good statisticians have written a lot

This thread from Galois was very telling. Upon attributing a few statements to Kurtz, and then finding no basis in Kurtz's writings he backpeddled. Watching and participating in this episode lead me to say "As both of these examples show, what Kurtz says is ofte[n] much more reasonable than what I keep reading people say Kurtz says." Galois gave a frank and conciliatory reply, "Hence the title of the post [Read for Yourself]".

Simularly Sullivan is caught in his own guile. Sullivan forwarded the statistics in Scandinavia to begin with to support his case for same-sex marriage. Kurtz's analysis of the statistics was so strong against Sullivan that Sullivan retracted any interest in them. What was once a point of science when he thought it supported his argument was now considered "irrelevant" when that support was shown to be an easily exposed illusion.

You can wave your hand at people talking about Sullivan all you want to, of course. I've read them and others and haven't seen an argument stand up to scrutiny. Some (like the one who wrote a hit piece for Slate) wrote such egregious attempts to discredit that they wound up being themselves a discredit to science.

Marty

I'd say that Kurtz's points are certainly "debatable", but hardly "refuted". And just because you cannot recognize the validity of "tenuous" connections, doesn't mean that they are not very real.

For my own part, I'd say that SSM is the logical RESULT of the weakening of OSM, not the cause per se. But that is still no reason we should go forward with it -- the fact that we are even discussing it serves as a very clear warning that unless we reverse our present course (heading straight for SSM), marriage is doomed as an institution. Will we then say that SSM "caused" its demise? No more so (and no LESS!) than rampant no fault divorce, and the "legitimization" of illegitimate parenting.

Future generations deserve so much better than this.

Fitz

Marty
100%
Future generations do deserve more than this.
Kurtz says specifically "further undermind the institution of marriage"
by sending the message that "all family forms are inhearently equal"

Yes SSM is both cause and effect in marital decline (people who refuse to see this are either being abtuse or have an agenda)

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