OK I was way off in my predictions about Iowa. Will that deter me from analyzing the rest of the nomination race? Of course not. I have no idea what would cause Lieberman to drop out because I have no idea of where he's hoping to pick up delegates or momentum. As for the other four serious candidates (Clark, Dean, Edwards, and Kerry), I don't see any realistic scenario where one of them would drop out between NH and Feb 3. Clark and Dean have too much money and support elsewhere, and Edwards and Kerry earned more delegates in IA then any candidate is likely to recieve in NH. Add to that the fact that Edwards and Clark are pinning their hopes on doing well in the South. The only result that I could possibly see causing one of these four to drop out would be a third place finish with below 15% of the vote for Dean or Kerry. I seriously doubt this would happen, but even if it did, the fact that only a week later there would be contests in seven states worth together more than four times IA and NH combined would likely keep the candidates in the race. So I see there being four candidates through at least Feb 3. What then?
Well, one question will be how will the press judge the race at that point. Will they focus on who won how many states, or will they focus on estimates of pledged delegates won. Note that for IA, NM, and ND only estimates of delegates won are available because of their caucus system. I'm guessing that unless there is one candidate who "won" seven of the nine states to that point, more attention will be payed to delagate count in order to try to make sense of the picture. The number of pledged delegates awarded (or estimated in case of caucuses) at this point will be as follows (* indicates caucus) ND*: 14, DE: 15, NH: 22, NM*: 26, OK: 40, IA*:45, SC: 45, AZ: 55, MO: 74. For a total of 336 delegates, most coming on Feb 3. Michigan is only four days later with 128 delegates at stake, but even though they call it a primary it is essentially a caucus system and only estimates can be derived from the vote results of Feb 7. Also that weekend are caucuses in WA and ME with 76 and 24 delegates at stake respectively. It will be interesting, also, to see what sort of pressure gets placed by party leaders on those not in the top two on the delegate scoreboard to drop out at this point.
So was IA a good result for Clark, or bad? Of course there's no way of telling for sure. For the view that it was detrimental to clark see Matt Yglesias writing at TAPPED. For a view that it was good see either Amy Sullivan or Kevin Drum. I tend to agree with Kevin's analysis and this site of polls (with nice pictures) that he links to supports his argument. Yes, Kerry's rise will hurt Clark in NH, and Edward's showing will hurt him in SC. Look at some of the biggest prizes on Feb 3, though: MO, AZ, and OK. A 1-12 poll has Clark leading AZ with Dean his only threat (he has a 30 point margin over Kerry and Edwards). OK (admittedly an outdated 12-23 poll) again shows Clark and Dean battling for first with almost no support for the others. With Gephardt gone, MO comes into play (most recently polled 1-11) and againg looks like a Clark/Dean battle. Gephardt being eliminated is a big plus for Clark. Dean being severely weakened was essential for Clark. A lot can happen in the next 13 days, but I don't think Clark should panic even if he does end up in third in NH. If he can do well in AZ, MO, OK, and SC he's in great shape.
I must say I think there is a real possibility of the nominee not being determined until at the convention. I also don't think there is such a bad thing. The parties clamor for more attention paid to the conventions, and the journalists each time seem to cover it less because it's more an advertisement than a news story. Imagine the coverage it will get, though, if the convention does determine the nominee. We'll see, it's a long way off. I think we'll know more in two weeks.
PS: By the same reasoning as above I would say that a Kerry/Dean/Clark finish in NH might actually be better for Clark than a Dean/Clark/Kerry finish. I think it's significant in every state, though, whether a third place finisher gets 15% of the statewide vote or not. It's technically possible in most states to win a few delegates with less than 15% statewide, but not likely and not many delegates can be won. Meeting the statewide threshold makes a big difference.
I have no idea what would cause Lieberman to drop out because I have no idea of where he's hoping to pick up delegates or momentum.
He doesn't need momentum; he's got JOEmentum! And he could pick it up in the South or even a state like NY. He's an articulate and yet down-to-earth person, and with a bit more exposure, I think voters will see that he is the type of person we need as a president.
As for the other four serious candidates (Clark, Dean, Edwards, and Kerry)...
I would still consider Lieberman a serious contender, even moreso than Edwards.
Posted by: Josephine Corcoran | January 27, 2004 at 10:31 PM
Well, he does claim to have JOEmentum and is staying in the race at least another week. Delaware seems like his best chance next week. I never meant to imply that Lieberman wasn't a serious candidate. On the contrary he's a US Senator and former VP nominee. I meant that other than him there are four serious contenders. I don't consider Kucinich or Sharpton serious candidates. In particular, those two probably won't ever drop out. They're not running trying to win. I think Lieberman still believes he has some chance (if very slim) of winning.
Posted by: Galois | January 28, 2004 at 12:15 AM