I'm thinking more and more that even immediately after Feb 3 the press is going to focus more on horse race finishes (Win/Place/Show), than on delegates accumulated. With that in mind what does a candidate need to do in order to be considered by the press as viable? I'd say you can divide the seven Feb 3 states into two categories. The major states of MO, AZ, SC, and OK, and the minor states of NM, DE, and ND. Of the four major states a candidate must win at least one, at least place in another, and at least show in a third. A win in a minor state could possibly substitute for a place in a major one. Even if a candidate placed in all of the states and racked up some delegates, without a win the press will say he's not capable off winning. In addition to this if Kerry wins 3 of the 4 major states he will be considered by the press to be unbeatable (they almost consider him that now), and it will be incredibly tough for a candidate to subsequently do well in the critical MI "Caucus" the following weekend.
So where does that leave our candidates for strategy? They each must focus on a state they can win and spend some time in the other key states. For Edwards it's SC. For Clark it's OK. For Dean it's AZ. Kerry is set to get some key endorsements in MO and will probably focus on it and it's big prize of 74 pledged delegates. As for secondary states, Edwards is looking at MO (where he also got some nice endorsments). Clark is looking at AZ, SC, and NM. Dean is looking at NM. Kerry is looking at SC and AZ (as the new frontrunner Kerry now seems to be doing well everywhere). I was a little surprised that Clark does not seem to be focusing on MO as much. As a neighboring state you would think he might be able to do well there. His web site seems to focus on the other four I mentioned. Clark was able to pick up a few Gephardt campaign workers, but no key endorsements from MO. Anyway, much can happen on Feb 3 and right on it's tails are caucuses or primaries in MI, WA, ME, DC, VA, and TN. Will there still be a race by super Tuesday, Mar 2? Who knows?
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