Based on RealClear Politics' collection of polls here are my predictions for how the 269 delegates up for grabs today in seven states will be awarded.
Kerry: 165 (from all seven states)
Edwards: 51 (from SC, MO, and OK)
Clark: 47 (from OK, AZ, and NM)
Dean: 6 (from NM)
The variable that is likely to cause the most swing to my prediction is whether or not a candidate meets the 15% threshold in a particular state. You will note, for example, that I assumed Dean did not win any MO or AZ delegates. So here is my adjustments based on such possible occurences in what I consider the order of likelihood.
AZ: If Dean meets the threshold he could take about 6 delegates from Kerry and 4 from Clark.
NM: I assumed that while Kerry won NM, both Clark and Dean won delegates here. If one of them fails, take away 6 delegates from that person and give 2 to the other one and 4 to Kerry.
DE: I assumed Kerry won all the delegates here. Dean or Lieberman both have a chance of picking up delegates here, though. If one makes it give him 4 candidtes from Kerry. If they both make it, give them each 3 from Kerry.
MO: A SUSA poll shows Dean just meeting the threshold here. I find that unlikely, but if so, give him 10 delegates from Kerry and 3 from Edwards.
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SC: A SUSA poll shows Clark meeting the threshold here. Again, I don't consider it likely, but if so give him 4 from Kerry and 4 from Edwards.
So there you have it, both my straight up predictions, and my prediction about the effect of certain candidtates meeting or failing to meet the 15% mark. It's sort of weird. The polls show a 3-way horse race in OK and in terms of how the press covers the next week or so that race is extremely important. In terms of actual delegate count, though, all 3 candidates are likely to pick up roughly a third of OK's delegates. For delegate accumulation, the biggest races to watch are whether the 3rd place finishers in MO, AZ, SC, and NM hit that magic 15%. In any case, we'll know a lot more about the nomination contest in another 12-24 hours.
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