The FMA Will Fail -- Revised and Extended

Last December I explained why I thought the Federal Marriage Amendment (FMA) would fail.  The biggest obstacle, I noted, was going to be the Senate.  I said one should consider the Senate Democrats together with Senators Chafee, Collins, Jeffords, Gordon Smith, Snowe, and Specter.  Then try to name 21 of those senators who would support the amendment.  At the time, I said I couldn't name one who would likely support it, but for some reason I forgot about Zell Miller ["D"-GA].  Sure enough, Senator Miller become the seventh senator to

sponsor or co-sponsor the amendment.  Interestingly, I have not been able to find any news report of this nor mention of it on his website.  In any case, that means one would still need to identify 20 senators from the above list.  I'm seriously interested if anybody has a list they would like to share.  An Annenberg poll just released (and conducted after last week's advisory opinion) shows the public opposing an amendment 49%-42%.  As wording has been very important in these polls, here is Annenberg's wording:

“Would you favor or oppose an amendment to the U.S. Constitution saying that No state can allow two men to marry each other or two women to marry each other.”

I should note Democrats opposed the amendment 62%-28%.  The South was the only region that favored it (and then only 50% were in favor).  The amendment was also opposed by 18-29 year olds by 58%-35%.  The amendment has nowhere near the kind of support it needs to be passed now and I think support will only diminish through time.

Comments

[Andrew Hagen]

If the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court can muster up five votes to overturn ten thousand years of tradition with the peremptory stroke of a gavel and ram from their position of elite, unaccountable power gay-marriage and cultural decadence down the throats of Americans, I think it will also be possible to get 67 democratically accountable Senators to support a measure to restore to the American people a say in the future of their country.

On a more technical note, DOMA passed on an 85-14 margin in 1996. I see no reason why the Marriage Protection Amendment cannot pass now.

Gay-marriage advocates have become smug and reckless. Their arrogance is their fatal weakness.

[Galois]

If the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court can muster up five votes...

Actually they could only muster up four.

overturn ten thousand years of tradition

Wow. That long?

I think it will also be possible to get 67 democratically accountable Senators

OK. Name them.

On a more technical note, DOMA passed on an 85-14 margin in 1996. I see no reason why the Marriage Protection Amendment cannot pass now.

There's a big difference between a statute that leaves this as a matter to each state and an amendment that prohibits any state from enacting same-sex marriage. Consider the push for an amendment to prohibit flag burning. In 1989 Congress overwhelmingly passed the Flag Protection Act (91-9 in the Senate and 371-43 in the House). Yet the amendment necessary for that act to have any effect has never made it into the US Constitution. I think many legislators are much more reluctant to amend the constitution than to pass a law. That's not to mention that DOMA would leave the matter of same-sex marriage to the individual states whereas FMA would prohibit states from deciding the matter for themselves. That's why Bob Barr who introduced DOMA is actually opposed to FMA.

By the way shouldn't it be called the Marriage Prevention Amendment? Just wondering.

I'm not smug. I am a bit reckless, but not here. I am explaining why I don't believe the FMA will pass the Senate. The only Democrat who has come out in support of it is Zell Miller. When you include just a few of the pro-gay rights Republicans you need to get 20 Senators to support your amendment. I'm just looking for names.

[BF]

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