Can the Democrats Take Back The Senate?

Of course phrasing the question that way the answer is clearly, "yes". The better question would have been are they likely to do so, but for that I have no idea. Mary Lynn F. Jones does explain, though, in TAP Online the outlook right now on the possibility of this "Congress Conquest". Combined with this post by DSCC political director Paul Tewes, we get a sense of the Democratic strategy. The Democrats need to shoot for 51 seats. (If Kerry wins they would only need 50 seats, but then his seat would become Republican so it's a wash--and for these purposes I'm counting Jeffords as a Dem). The Democrats first hope to hold onto every seat where they have an incumbent running thus giving them 44 seats. They would then need to win seven of the following. There are eight open seats: FL, GA, LA, SC, NC, OK, IL, and CO. The conventional wisdom is that the Democrats will have a tough tme with those first five states, but the above links explain why the conventional wisdom could be wrong. There are also at least two vulnerable Republican incumbents. In Alaska Lisa Murkowski is up for election for the first time after her father appointed her to the seat two years ago. She is running against popular ex-governor Tony Knowles. Both links also mention the possibility of State Treasurer Nancy Farmer defeating Kit Bond in Missouri. That means the Democrats would have to bat seven for ten in those contests (and of course hold on to their incumbent seats). It's also possible that PA could come into play, but I don't think that's likely if Specter holds off Toomey in the Republican primary. I will try to follow those ten races occasionally, but for a regular more in-depth (and more informed) source of information you should read Daily Kos and the DSCC's own blog, From The Roots.

Comments

[Another Rice Grad]

On a straightup basis, I'd be willing to wager that Democrats stay even AT BEST.

[Galois]

I'd wager the same. As for the odds of the Democrats actually taking back the senate. I'd take 5-1. All hypothetical, of course. This site does not promote any sort of illegal wagering. :)

Now what are the odds of the Owls defending their title this year?

[Another Rice Grad]

They aren't playing great so far, but I think they're still a team no one wants to play. With that pitching staff, I'd hate to have to face them in the series.