Galois

Wes Clark in 2004

Amy Sullivan has a new post explaining further why she supports Clark over Dean. In this one she does quite a nice job of knocking down some of the Deaniac arguments. I get especially annoyed with the "If Dean's not the candidate all those enthusiastic grassroots supporters will stay home" argument. Are there really that many people that are crazy for Dean, but couldn't care less whether Bush remains in office for another four years? I'm not saying Dean is not electable, but electability is the most important consideratioin in selecting our candidate. Which canidate is more likey to beat Bush should be a prime consideration of voters in the primaries. The candidate with the best shot is the one that will best appeal to the swing voters in the swing states. Of course I also believe Clark would make the better president, but that's just an extra benefit. I'm not surprised that some of my favorite bloggers like Amy Sullivan, Kevin Drum, and Mark Kleiman support him as well.

Upcoming Dates I: Democratic Primary

I thought I wouild start this blog with a couple of posts on important dates and events I will be following in the next few months. First of all, the new year is an election year and that means primary season. Of course the dates of the primaries themselves are significant (states with a * hold a caucus):

Jan 19 -- Iowa*
Jan 27 -- New Hampshire
Feb 3 -- Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico*, North Dakota*, South Carolina, Oklahoma
Feb 7 -- Michigan*, Washington*
Feb 8 -- Maine*
Feb 10 -- Tennessee, Virginia
Feb 14 -- District of Columbia*, Nevada*
Feb 17 -- Wisconsin
Feb 24 -- Idaho*, Utah, Hawaii*
Mar 2 -- California, Conn, Georgia, Maryland, Mass, Minnesota*, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont

More imporant, though, is the dates on which candidates drop out. Delegates are awarded proportionally, but a candidate must meet a 15% threshold to receive delegates. The more candidates drop out, the more likely the other candidates will be able to meet that magic threshold.

UPDATE (1/21): For my current analysis of the race please see here. Also note that I've switched Michigan from a primary to a caucus. Although it's officially a primary, the primary results determine numbers of county delegates won. These delegates meet later and elect some national delegates and some delegates to a future statewide convention. Thus, the results are more like a caucus in the sense that it can be used to estimate the number of delegates won, but no delegates are actually awarded at the time.

UPDATE (2/8): See my latest pledged delegate count